Reconstructing Weak and Failed States: Foreign Intervention and the Nirvana Fallacy.” Working Paper

Attempts to reconstruct weak and failed countries suffer from a nirvana fallacy. Where central governments are absent or dysfunctional, it is assumed that reconstruction efforts by foreign governments generate a preferable outcome. This assumption overlooks (1) the possibility that foreign government interventions can fail, (2) the possibility that recon-struction efforts can do more harm than good, and (3) the possibility that indigenous governance mechanisms may evolve that are more ef-fective than those imposed by military occupiers. It is argued that re-construction efforts focus on resolving the meta-level game of creating self-sustaining liberal democratic institutions while neglecting the nested games embedded within the general meta-game. An analysis of Somalia, a prototypical failed state, is provided to illuminate these claims. While Somalia lacks a central government, the private sector has developed coping mechanisms to fill the void. These mechanisms have proven to be more effective in generating widespread order than attempts by for-eign occupiers to impose a self-sustaining liberal state. The problems generated by weak and failed states are among the most relevant issues in the world today.1 The potential chaos that these states can produce poses a threat to global political and economic security and stability. Understanding what can be done for weak or failed states, where the basic institutions necessary for liberal democratic political, economic, and social orders are either absent or dys-functional, is the central policy issue facing the international community